As summer 2025 unfolds, the AEM meteorological services team predicts persistent heat, a continued threat from wildfires, and regionally variable precipitation across North America. Our full Summer Weather Outlook blends insights from historical analog years, model guidance, and current atmospheric signals with analysis from four expert AEM meteorologists: James Aman, Mark Paquette, Rob Reale, and Kyle Leahy.
You can find a breakdown of predictions and key takeaways for both the United States and Canada below or jump to the information that’s most relevant to you using these links:
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Summer temperature outlook for the U.S.
The western half of the U.S. is bracing for significant heat, with a high-pressure ridge expected to dominate the region through much of the summer. "Most of the heat is going to be in the west," explained WeatherWorks forecast meteorologist Kyle Leahy, "but you could see how... it gets pushed into the east" as the season progresses.
The Gulf Coast and Southeast may experience near-normal temperatures, though the region is “already so hot that time of year that you're not really dealing with a cool summer, you're just dealing with a pretty average summer,” Kyle added.
The Northeast, despite being humid and wet, may still face some oppressive conditions. “The odds of oppressive heat, like high heat indices... are going to be higher in places like the Northeast,” Kyle noted. However, extreme temperature spikes (e.g., over 100°F) are less likely due to the expected wetness of the region.
Summer wildfire outlook for the U.S.
Wildfire activity is expected to remain a major concern for the western U.S., particularly the Northern Rockies, Pacific Northwest, and parts of the Great Basin. Earth Networks meteorologist Mark Paquette noted that “significant wildfire potential” is concentrated “especially [in] the northern part of the Rockies and the Pacific Northwest,” peaking in July and August.
In the central U.S., parts of the southern plains and upper Midwest could also see increased wildfire risks, especially near the fringes of the high-pressure ridge. “We’re going to see a ridge develop, and that’s going to really dry things out,” Mark said, highlighting the impact of prolonged dry conditions.
Interestingly, the frequency of wildfires has decreased slightly over time, but their size and intensity have increased. “The number of fires has actually gone down... but the acres burned have gone up,” Mark noted, pointing to a trend of larger and more destructive wildfires.
Summer precipitation outlook for the U.S.
This summer will showcase a dramatic contrast in rainfall between east and west. The eastern U.S., including the Gulf Coast, Southeast, Ohio Valley, and Northeast, is expected to be wetter than normal. Kyle summarized the outlook: “A quite wet summer likely on the way for the Gulf Coast, Southeast, all the way up into the Ohio Valley and Northeast”.
In contrast, a broad swath from the Northern Rockies to the Upper Midwest, including parts of Missouri, Iowa, and Illinois, faces increasing dryness. “We do expect it to continue to get worse” in those areas, Kyle said.
A slightly above-average monsoon season in the Southwest is offering some hope for Arizona and New Mexico. “We already have seen a pretty active monsoon so far,” Kyle noted, citing recent rains in Arizona.
Soil moisture trends reflect this split. “Anything west of the Mississippi is going to be on the dry side,” senior AEM meteorologist James Aman warned, whereas the eastern half will retain adequate to excessive moisture.
Summer temperature outlook for Canada
Canada will also see widespread warmth this summer, particularly in the west and central provinces. “Most of Canada's just going to be warm a lot of the time,” Kyle said, noting that a warm bias has become a persistent summer pattern in recent years.
British Columbia and the Prairie provinces, including Alberta and Saskatchewan, will likely experience the strongest and most prolonged heat. Kyle explained, “Those areas would be like British Columbia, Western Canada… Central Canada still looks hot”.
The temperature setup stems from persistent negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) patterns and neutral ENSO conditions, meaning there’s no strong El Niño or La Niña influence this summer.
Summer wildfire outlook for Canada
Wildfires are already burning across western Canada, and unfortunately, little relief is expected in the months ahead. “Western Canada really sticks out like a sore thumb,” said Mark. “There’s not going to be a lot of widespread soaking rain this summer for Western Canada”.
Dry conditions in regions like northeastern British Columbia and parts of Saskatchewan are already fueling fire activity, and that’s likely to worsen. “We already see large wildfire burning and we have a lot of smoke plumes from that already occurring to the east,” Mark noted.
A persistent ridge in western North America is expected to transport smoke across the continent. “The smoke is going to be directed towards the Great Lakes, the Northeast, and the Northern Appalachians,” which may affect air quality in cities like New York and Chicago, depending on the thickness and altitude of the smoke layer.
Summer precipitation outlook for Canada
Western Canada faces a grim outlook for precipitation this summer. “You're largely going to be dealing with continued drier weather over much of British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan,” said Kyle, reinforcing the expectation of ongoing fire weather conditions.
In eastern Canada, things are more variable. “By the time we get towards like Toronto, Ontario, Quebec, it's probably just going to be changeable, if anything maybe slightly drier,” Kyle explained.
While northern provinces may see some isolated improvements in moisture, these regions are sparsely populated and unlikely to offset the broader impacts of dryness in more populous western and central areas.
Final thoughts
Across North America, the summer of 2025 looks to be shaped by persistent heat, uneven precipitation patterns, and elevated wildfire risk—especially in the western regions. For the U.S., the east can expect a wetter, humid summer, while the west confronts fire and drought. In Canada, the heat and dryness concentrated in the west may mirror patterns seen in 2021 and 2023.
For decision-makers, emergency managers, and everyday citizens, this outlook underscores the importance of preparedness and close monitoring of evolving weather risks. If you've got a team, community, or business to protect, AEM can help.