From the late fall through January of each year, farmers’ almanacs pop up in grocery stores, pharmacies, and even hardware stores across the United States. These publications have all sorts of useful information in them, but the thing they’re most famous for is weather predictions.
Their gardening advice, traditional folk wisdom, and articles about nature, astronomy, and history make farmers' almanacs an important yearly tradition. Buy them. Read them. Enjoy them. Just make sure you get your weather forecasts from a real meteorologist.
When I hear people saying, “It’s going to be this kind of a year…” or “We’re going to get this much rain next month…” because they read it in the almanac, I cringe. Whether you’re a business budgeting for snow removal or a person trying to figure out when to have their wedding, these just aren’t resources that are useful for that kind of planning.
Let me explain why.
Almanacs are published as early as September of the previous year, and they go to the printer weeks or even a month before that. That means the people who write those predictions are working much further out than modern meteorology can effectively forecast specific conditions.
Meteorologists might create a general outlook for the next season where we make broad-stroke predictions based on historical data and recent year-over-year trends, but a specific forecast for a given day in a given location is really only excellent for one to four days. Once you’re past the five-day mark, you’re not able to predict specifics with nearly as much certainty.
Some almanac publishers claim they can close that gap by thinking beyond the boundaries of traditional meteorology or using an ultra-reliable secret formula that dates back to the 1700s. I’ll say this: many of today’s best scientists are working on improving extended forecasting right now, as is some of today’s most advanced artificial intelligence. It’s hard to believe that any proprietary code from the eighteenth century hasn’t been cracked or independently rediscovered.
The best way to show these almanac forecasts are useless is to hold them up to scrutiny. For example, 2025 is just one month old, and the two biggest players in this space, The Farmers’ Almanac and The Old Farmer’s Almanac are both guilty of major errors.
Looking back to December of 2024, The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicted that the Atlantic Corridor region would average temperatures of 43 °F and receive an average of 1.5 inches of rain. Every city specifically included in the region fell below the almanac’s predicted average temperature and well above the precipitation predictions when you look at National Weather Service data.
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Reference Area
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Actual Average Temperature (Source: NWS/NOAA)
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Actual Total
Precipitation (Source: NWS/NOAA) |
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Boston, MA
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35.3 °F
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5.65”
|
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Providence, RI
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34.5 °F
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7.58”
|
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Hartford, CT
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33.8 °F
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4.22”
|
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New York, NY
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38.2 °F
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4.53”
|
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Philadelphia, PA
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38.5 °F
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3.45”
|
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Atlantic City, NJ
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38.9 °F
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3.36”
|
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Baltimore, MD
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38.6 °F
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2.84”
|
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Washington, D.C.
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41.9 °F
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2.8”
|
|
Richmond, VA
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42.3 °F
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2.00”
|
Digging deeper, however, if you look at that list of cities, the idea of grouping them together as one region with a single climate and consistent day-to-day conditions makes no sense. Would anybody with an understanding of American geography assume that the weather in Boston and the weather in Richmond would be closely relatable? If this publication is ostensibly for farmers, are farmers in coastal Massachusetts growing the same crops in the same conditions as farmers in Virginia?
Shifting to January, we took a look at The Farmers’ Almanac's predictions for the Southeast, a region that's had some uncharacteristic weather in the early weeks of 2025 that certainly would've been useful to know about in advance. Like their main competition, The Farmers’ Almanac groups huge areas together into one forecast. These predictions are meant to apply to everywhere from Mississippi to Miami and as far north as West Virginia.
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January 2025 Weather Forecast
Zone 3: Southeast
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|||
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Date Range
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Prediction
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Accurate?
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Notes (Source: NWS/NOAA)
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1/1 – 1/3
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“Storm from Gulf of Mexico brings showers”
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No.
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It was dry across the region.
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1/4 – 1/7
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“Rain AL, MS, GA, northern FL; heavy Gulf Coast. Showery/thundery central & south FL.”
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Not very.
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One day of light rain across AL, MS, and GA. No heavy storms along the Gulf Coast. Southern Florida remained dry.
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1/8 – 1/11
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“Showery MS valley.”
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No!
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January 9-11 brought a winter storm across the region that seriously impacted transportation and utility infrastructure.
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1/12 – 1/15
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“Heavy, wind-swept rains, then fair.”
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Not very.
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No precipitation in the Atlanta area during this time. Only trace precipitation in the Gulf Coast states, Carolinas, and Tennessee.
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1/16 – 1/19
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“Clearing but windy, then showers AL, GA, points north.”
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Somewhat.
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Light showers in Alabama and Georgia on the 16th and 18th. Light precipitation in the Nashville, Raleigh, and Charleston, WV areas.
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1/20 – 1/23
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“Rain, showers. Mild, then colder.”
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No!
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January 20-22 saw a strong winter storm and blizzard conditions across the Gulf Coast. As much as 11” of snow fell in Alabama. Nearly 10” fell near Pensacola.
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1/24 – 1/27
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“Very cold; blustery winds.”
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Somewhat.
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It was -10 to -15 °F below average across the Gulf Coast region on January 24. Temperatures remained below average through the 27th.
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1/28 – 1/31
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“Fair, but bitter cold.”
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Not really.
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Temperatures rebounded to average or even above in much of the region.
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These two examples illustrate why you can’t rely on the weather predictions in the almanac. The wild misestimation in December for the Northeast shows that the information isn’t reliable for business planning – if you made decisions about how much fuel to buy a few months ago based on those forecasts, you might have severely underestimated how much you needed. Then, this January, we saw the almanac fail to predict either of the two notable winter storms, ostensibly the most important things to be aware of. It’s just not useful information.
For anybody looking to replace the almanac with a more reliable long-range forecast, the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center provides excellent 14-day outlooks and even creates outlooks for as far out as three months. They won’t try to assign specific weather events to days like the almanacs, but they will tell you the chances of above- or below-average temperatures and precipitation. Thanks to AI and machine learning, their forecasts are getting better all the time.
If you’re an actual farmer looking for weather information that you can count on to make decisions, the USDA's Office of the Chief Economist provides three core agricultural weather resources: daily U.S. weather highlights, the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, and the U.S. Drought Monitor. They are all focused on offering farmers relevant weather intel and are written in a way that helps translate meteorology into action on the farm.
When you need weather intelligence you can rely on to make business decisions, our AEM meteorological services team can provide you with a pinpoint forecast that’s tailored to your exact location and weather concerns. We can also serve as your weather consultant to help you understand incoming weather, prepare effectively, and adjust as needed.
Got a question that only a real meteorologist can answer? AEM is here to help!