How to Get More Accurate Forecasts with ENcast®

When a single unanticipated storm can disrupt logistics, shift energy demand, or flood a critical site, accurate forecasting becomes the cornerstone of operational resilience. Yet most organizations still rely on generic or regional weather data that misses local nuances.

AEM’s ENcast® Forecast changes that equation. Drawing on over 100 global models and additional regional and hyperlocal inputs, refined through AEM’s proprietary networks and machine learning, ENcast delivers the world’s most accurate, continuously updated weather forecasts.

From Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs) balancing grid load to transportation planners avoiding costly delays, organizations worldwide trust ENcast to help them anticipate hazards and act before they escalate.

Moving forward, we’ll explore…

• How ENcast’s multimodel design delivers greater forecast accuracy

• The latest improvements in precipitation timing and performance

• The ENcast product lineup and their key applications

• What sets ENcast apart as the new standard for proactive weather intelligence

A smarter multimodel engine 

Unlike traditional single-model forecasts, ENcast’s machine learning multimodel (mLM) architecture processes inputs from up to 40 raw Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) datasets, including ECMWF, UKMET, GFS, and over 100 ensemble models.

These are dynamically corrected using: 

• AEM’s global weather networks and Earth Networks Total Lightning Network® (ENTLN)
• WMO and mesonet weather stations
• Satellite and radar observations
• Continuous bias correction and validation loops

The result is a forecast proven 25% more accurate than competitors across 10,000+ stations globally.

Each new forecast cycle runs through Forward Error Correction (FEC), a proprietary ENcast process that refines results based on real-time conditions. Within the nowcast window (0-18hrs), ENcast’s hourly updates can improve short-term precision by up to 40%, a critical edge for high-stakes operational decisions.

Breakthrough upgrade: better precipitation timing 

AEM recently rolled out a major upgrade to the ENcast precipitation forecast, an innovation driven by continuous refinement of the ENcast machine learning model (mLM).

The improvement in time resolution focuses on one of the hardest forecasting questions:

When will it rain or snow?

By re-engineering how the model ingests and interprets raw precipitation data, ENcast has improved time assessment of precipitation forecast events by 10 to 20 percent globally, as measured by the Heidke Skill Score (HSS).

Day 1: Improvements in the Heidke Skill Score for Day 1 forecast period with much of North America gaining 0.05-0.20+ HSS improvements (5-20+%). 

Day 2: Improvements in the Heidke Skill Score for Day 2 forecast period with much of North America gaining 0.05-0.20+ HSS improvements (5-20+%). 

Day 3: Improvements in the Heidke Skill Score for Day 3 forecast period with much of North America gaining 0.05-0.20+ HSS improvements (5-20+%). 

This advancement allows organizations to:

• Predict rainfall start and end times with greater accuracy and reliability
• Optimize field operations and crew scheduling around actual impact window
• Strengthen decision support for flood risk, logistics, and renewable energy generation.

It’s not just an incremental tweak. It’s a true leap in precipitation intelligence that directly supports faster, data-driven action.

The ENcast portfolio 

ENcast offers three distinct forecast products, each designed to deliver the right scale and refresh rate for different operational needs.

ENcast Sensor Forecast

By blending real-time sensor observations from on-site weather sensors with ENcast’s global models, this forecast achieves the highest possible accuracy at the point of measurement. The ENcast Sensor Forecast provides 15-day hourly forecasts with hourly updates. Using the station data as real-time inputs into the forecast process, the ENcast mLM validates, forward-error corrects and adjusts for bias the existing forecast. Because it continuously incorporates new sensor data as conditions change, this version of ENcast delivers near-real-time precision that adapts to evolving microclimates.

Ideal for:

• Utilities forecasting renewable generation or load impacts
•  Industrial or airport sites requiring precise local conditions
• Flood control teams refining hydrologic models in real time

ENcast Lat-Lon Forecast

The ENcast Lat-Lon Forecast delivers 15-day forecasts for any latitude or longitude on Earth, providing enterprise-grade weather data to support global operations. The ENcast Lat-Lon Forecast provides 15-day hourly forecasts with hourly updates.  This ensures that global organizations can depend on consistently current intelligence, no matter how remote or variable the environment.

Ideal for:

• Logistics and fleet routing optimization
• Energy trading and grid-balancing applications
• Agricultural or irrigation scheduling in remote regions
• Mining operations in mountainous or remote regionsAlert acknowledgement and shared response status ensure everyone is aligned

ENcast City Forecast 

Built for large-scale, public-facing applications, ENcast City delivers clear, accessible, and responsive forecasts for more than 200,000 cities around the world. Forecasts update every 15 minutes during the first three hours of the forecast period to capture ultra-short-term weather shifts, then refresh hourly over the next 10 days for reliable, continuous awareness.

Ideal for:

• Media and weather apps
• Smart city dashboards and municipal communications
• Event, recreation, or travel planning platforms

Why ENcast outperforms every other forecast 

ENcast’s edge comes from both data depth and intelligent design:

• High-resolution ensembles: Hundreds of model runs deliver finer-grained forecasts.

• AI-powered multimodel learning: Real-time data continuously sharpens performance.
• Hyperlocal tuning: Refined by AEM’s proprietary weather, flood, and lightning networks.
• Forward Error Correction (FEC): Self-learning adjustment that eliminates bias and stabilizes output.
• Lowest verified error: Outperforms competitors in global accuracy testing across temperature, precipitation, and timing metrics.

Together, these innovations create a forecast engine that doesn’t just predict the weather. It helps organizations replace uncertainty with operational foresight. 

From data to decision

Whether accessed through AEM Elements® 360 or integrated via the ENcast API, ENcast helps organizations visualize and automate forecast data to inform every layer of operation — from staffing and logistics to energy trading and public safety.

With ENcast, weather awareness becomes proactive, not reactive, empowering you to act with confidence based on the most accurate forecast available.

If you’re ready to learn more about how ENcast can strengthen your operational decision-making, contact us today to connect with an AEM forecasting specialist.