The Year in Weather: 2024's Alarming Climate Reckoning

From record-breaking global temperatures to an unrelenting onslaught of natural disasters, 2024 has become a pivotal year in the story of our planet’s changing climate. This year will be the first year in which global temperatures breach the critical 1.5°C threshold outlined in the Paris Agreement—an alarming benchmark of a warming world. The consequences? Devastating floods, catastrophic wildfires, and billion-dollar storms have left no corner of the globe untouched. In this post, we’ll take a closer look at:

• Record-breaking global temperatures
• Soaring natural disaster costs
• Rising flood risks
• Surging storm hazards
• Intensifying wildfire threats

Heat records shattered in 2024

2024 is on track to become the second consecutive year of record-high average global temperatures. After 2023 shattered the record for annual global temperature, there was some hope that there might be some cooling in 2024 as an El Niño pattern seemed likely to give way to a La Niña. Unfortunately, that did not happen. Instead, as we come into the final weeks of the year, 2024 is on track to be even hotter than last year.

In fact, the global mean temperature for the first nine months of the year was 1.54°C above pre-industrial levels. As a result, there is a strong probability that 2024 could become the first year in which annual global temperature exceeds the 1.5°C threshold established by the Paris Agreement. The 2015 Paris Agreement is an international treaty in which 196 parties around the world agreed to take measures to try to limit long-term warming to less than the 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

2024 will likely become the first year that global annual temperature exceeds 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, an important benchmark of global warming. 

Certainly, a single year – or even two years – is not enough to constitute a long-term change in climate. And, while long-term warming remains below the 1.5° threshold, the past decade is the warmest on record and appears to indicate an accelerating upward trend.

A year of unrelenting disasters

Unfortunately, rising temperatures come with more volatile weather, such as more frequent and severe heat waves. Warmer air can hold onto more moisture. In fact, for every 1°C of global warming, the atmosphere can hold 7% more water vapor, which can cause droughts to become more severe. And, when it does rain, increased moisture and energy can result in more severe storms and flooding.

This is exactly what we’ve seen in 2024 as the costs of natural disasters have continued to climb. According to a recent report from Swiss Re, natural disasters, so far, have cost the world US $310 billion in 2024. That’s up 6% from the prior year and a 29% increase over the ten-year average. Insured losses stand at US $135 billion, which represents a 17% increase over the previous year and a 38% increase from the 10-year average.

Economic losses from natural disasters in 2024 are up 38% over the 10-year average.

Those costs can be traced not only to an overall increase in the number of natural disasters, but also to an increase in their severity. For example, NOAA reports that the U.S. has suffered 24 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disasters, so far, in 2024, which together accounted for at least $61.6 billion in losses. This is substantially greater than the average number of billion-dollar events that the U.S. suffered from 1980-2023, which was 8.5 events per year. It is also about 17% greater than the most recent 5-year average of 20.4 events per year.

Let’s take a closer look at the impacts of some specific types of natural hazards over the past year:

Rising flood risks

All the way back in October, the National Weather Service in the U.S. had already issued a record-breaking 91 flash flood emergencies for 2024. What’s more, the five most active years have all occurred in the last decade. (Note that flash flood emergencies account for only about 1% of all flash flood warnings and are reserved for cases that pose the most extreme threats to life and bring potential for catastrophic damage.)

Of course, flood-related disasters have not been confined to the U.S. Swiss RE’s report noted that flooding has been a major driver of insured losses in Europe and Asia. Severe floods in Europe and the UAE have resulted in estimated insured losses of about US $13 billion for the year to date, making it the third costliest year for flooding. However, Europe accounted for US$10 billion of those losses, making it the second most costly year for flooding in Europe.

In 2024, the U.S. had a record number of flash flood emergencies, while Europe had its second-most costly year of flooding on record.

Hurricanes account for some of the worst flood disasters, which we'll discuss below. But, even if we momentarily set aside hurricane-related flooding, there have been many notable flood events in the U.S. and abroad. Here are just a few:

1 Intense storms in November brought 6-10 inches of rain and caused flash flooding in parts of Missouri, killing five people.

2 Severe flooding in and around Roswell, New Mexico killed 2 and prompted water rescues of 309 people in October. Damage from the event was estimated to be about $500 million.

3 In August, the Mendenhall Glacier dam in Juneau, Alaska, broke in the middle of the night. The Mendenhall River rose over 15 feet, flooding more than 100 homes and hundreds of vehicles. Fortunately, there were no fatalities.

4 Following a two-year drought, record rainfall around the Valencia region in October brought Spain’s worst disaster in years. The flooding killed 219 people and impacted 190,000 others. Insured losses from the event are estimated to be at least US $3.8 billion, and the Valencia region government is asking for US $33 billion in aid from Madrid. 

5  Storm Boris dropped devastating amounts of rainfall throughout central Europe in September. It impacted Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia. Rising water caused at least 12 dams to break throughout Austria. The storm and its resultant flooding killed at least 24 and displaced hundreds more.

6 A 2021 study found that global warming is making the South Asian monsoon season more intense and erratic. This season got off to an early start. Between June and September, flooding from the 2024 monsoon rains killed more than 650 people across India, Bangladesh, and Nepal. More than 500,000 in Bangladesh have been displaced.

Surging storm hazards

According to NOAA, an average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. However, the 2024 season was above average on almost all fronts with 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes, which aligns closely with AEM’s forecast.

Unfortunately, when hurricanes make landfall, they can be highly destructive. Swiss RE notes that Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which pummeled the Southeast and made landfall in less than two weeks of each other – these two storms alone – caused insured losses of just under US $50 billion. And one of the biggest causes of destruction is flooding. Hurricanes Debby, Francine, Helene, and Milton have accounted for about half of all flash flood emergencies issued in the U.S. during the year.

In 2024, the U.S. suffered 17 separate billion-dollar storms, plus Hurricanes Helene and Milton inflicted another $50 billion in insured losses. Typhoon Yagi became the strongest storm to hit Vietnam in 70 years.

Of course, tropical cyclones are not the only storms we have to worry about. Insured losses from other severe convective storms throughout the U.S. are expected to total more than US $51 billion. In fact, 17 of the 24 billion-dollar climate disasters in the U.S. this year have been severe storms that produced tornadoes, high winds, and/or hail. Total damage from those storms is $46.6 billion.

Here are a few storm highlights from the U.S. and abroad:

1 The 2024 U.S. tornado season has been the most active since 2011 with a total of 1,745 reported tornadoes as of November 5.

2 As of July 22, the U.S. already had about 1,200 more reports of thunderstorm high wind or wind damage for 2024 than for an average year.

3 Typhoon Yagi hit southeast Asia in early September. Across Vietnam, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, and the Philippines, almost 600 people were killed while millions were displaced. It was the strongest storm to hit Vietnam in 70 years.

Intensifying wildfire threats

The U.S. National Interagency Fire Center reports that the country has, so far, suffered 52,447 wildfires, which have consumed more than 8.4 million acres. Although the total number of fires is currently about 5% under the 10-year average, the acreage burned is almost 25% greater than the 10-year average. Here are a few highlights:

Canada’s experience has been similar to that of the U.S. As of November, the number of wildfires this year was running about 9% under the 10-year average. However, those fires had burned almost 13.3 million acres, making 2024 the second-most destructive wildfire season since 1995 (second only to last year, which set the record with a whopping 42 million acres burned).

Climate change has caused wildfires in South America's Pantanal to become 40% more intense. Although North America and Australia experienced near-average numbers of fires in 2024, the acreage burned by those fires was well above average. 

Here are a few of the North American highlights:

1 In February and March, the Smokehouse Creek Fire burned more than 1 million acres across the Texas panhandle and parts of Oklahoma, making it the largest wildfire ever to hit the state. For comparison, the burned area was roughly the size of Connecticut. In addition to killing three people, it destroyed more than 500 structures and killed 15,000 cattle. Total economic losses are expected to exceed $1 billion.

2 Two New Mexico wildfires (the South Fork Fire and the Salt Fire) started on the same day in June, burning more than 20,000 acres in and around the Apache tribal region and destroying more than 1,400 structures. All 7,000 residents of Ruidoso, a popular tourist town, had to be evacuated. Monsoon rains later hit the burn scars. This compounded the area’s problems by causing mudslides, flooding, and debris flows.

3 The danger is compounded when wildfires spring up in more populous areas. For example, when the Mountain Fire broke out in California’s Ventura County in November, Santa Ana winds and low humidity caused it to spread quickly to more than 20,000 acres and threaten suburban neighborhoods. Officials issued mass evacuation orders as the fire destroyed 243 buildings and became the third most destructive wildfire in southern California since 2013. Similarly, the Jennings Creek Fire along the New York-New Jersey border burned over 5,000 acres from November into December and prompted evacuations in two separate communities.

4 The cost of Canada’s fires shot up dramatically in July with the Jasper Complex Fire. Burning more than 80,000 acres, this was the largest wildfire ever seen in Alberta’s Jasper National Park. The fire swept through the tourist town of Jasper, destroying about 1/3 of the town’s structures (some of which included multiple homes). It’s estimated that the fire inflicted about US $1.6 million in property damage and another US $1.6 million in loss of property tax revenue. That doesn’t even account for the lost tourism revenue that the town relies on.

Australia’s experience has paralleled what we’ve seen in North America. The continent has had 64,804 VIIRS fire alerts, so far, in 2024, which is normal compared to other years going back to 2012. However, more than 237.4 million acres burned over the course of the country’s 2023-24 bushfire season, which is 413% greater than the area burned over the infamous 2019-20 Black Summer bushfire season.

Unfortunately for South America, heat and drought paved the way for the continent to fall victim to both more wildfires and more intense fires. As of September, a record-breaking 346,112 fires had burned across the South American continent, 70% of which were in Brazil. Making matters worse, hot and dry conditions boosted the intensity of this year’s wildfires by a full 40%. As a result, the fires have destroyed more than 4.48 million acres – an area nearly the size of the entire Florida Everglades.

Looking ahead: Building resilience to natural hazards

2024 has made one thing clear: as the climate continues to warm, the impacts of natural hazards are becoming an enduring and growing part of our reality. From record-breaking heat to intensifying storms and wildfires, these events remind us of the urgent need to adapt to a changing world. The question is no longer whether we can avoid natural hazards, but how we can minimize their impact and strengthen our communities to weather the challenges ahead.

The key lies in working together to understand the risks, plan ahead, and take proactive measures. But, effective collaboration hinges on understanding what others are doing. That’s why AEM recently surveyed more than 1,600 businesses, government agencies, and private citizens in the U.S. and abroad about how they are dealing with weather-related hazards. To see the results, check out our 2024 End-of-Year Weather Resilience Report.