From record-breaking global temperatures to an unrelenting onslaught of natural disasters, 2024 has become a pivotal year in the story of our planet’s changing climate. This year will be the first year in which global temperatures breach the critical 1.5°C threshold outlined in the Paris Agreement—an alarming benchmark of a warming world. The consequences? Devastating floods, catastrophic wildfires, and billion-dollar storms have left no corner of the globe untouched. In this post, we’ll take a closer look at:
2024 is on track to become the second consecutive year of record-high average global temperatures. After 2023 shattered the record for annual global temperature, there was some hope that there might be some cooling in 2024 as an El Niño pattern seemed likely to give way to a La Niña. Unfortunately, that did not happen. Instead, as we come into the final weeks of the year, 2024 is on track to be even hotter than last year.
In fact, the global mean temperature for the first nine months of the year was 1.54°C above pre-industrial levels. As a result, there is a strong probability that 2024 could become the first year in which annual global temperature exceeds the 1.5°C threshold established by the Paris Agreement. The 2015 Paris Agreement is an international treaty in which 196 parties around the world agreed to take measures to try to limit long-term warming to less than the 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
2024 will likely become the first year that global annual temperature exceeds 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, an important benchmark of global warming.
Certainly, a single year – or even two years – is not enough to constitute a long-term change in climate. And, while long-term warming remains below the 1.5° threshold, the past decade is the warmest on record and appears to indicate an accelerating upward trend.
Unfortunately, rising temperatures come with more volatile weather, such as more frequent and severe heat waves. Warmer air can hold onto more moisture. In fact, for every 1°C of global warming, the atmosphere can hold 7% more water vapor, which can cause droughts to become more severe. And, when it does rain, increased moisture and energy can result in more severe storms and flooding.
This is exactly what we’ve seen in 2024 as the costs of natural disasters have continued to climb. According to a recent report from Swiss Re, natural disasters, so far, have cost the world US $310 billion in 2024. That’s up 6% from the prior year and a 29% increase over the ten-year average. Insured losses stand at US $135 billion, which represents a 17% increase over the previous year and a 38% increase from the 10-year average.
Economic losses from natural disasters in 2024 are up 38% over the 10-year average.
Those costs can be traced not only to an overall increase in the number of natural disasters, but also to an increase in their severity. For example, NOAA reports that the U.S. has suffered 24 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disasters, so far, in 2024, which together accounted for at least $61.6 billion in losses. This is substantially greater than the average number of billion-dollar events that the U.S. suffered from 1980-2023, which was 8.5 events per year. It is also about 17% greater than the most recent 5-year average of 20.4 events per year.
Let’s take a closer look at the impacts of some specific types of natural hazards over the past year:
All the way back in October, the National Weather Service in the U.S. had already issued a record-breaking 91 flash flood emergencies for 2024. What’s more, the five most active years have all occurred in the last decade. (Note that flash flood emergencies account for only about 1% of all flash flood warnings and are reserved for cases that pose the most extreme threats to life and bring potential for catastrophic damage.)
Of course, flood-related disasters have not been confined to the U.S. Swiss RE’s report noted that flooding has been a major driver of insured losses in Europe and Asia. Severe floods in Europe and the UAE have resulted in estimated insured losses of about US $13 billion for the year to date, making it the third costliest year for flooding. However, Europe accounted for US$10 billion of those losses, making it the second most costly year for flooding in Europe.
In 2024, the U.S. had a record number of flash flood emergencies, while Europe had its second-most costly year of flooding on record.
Hurricanes account for some of the worst flood disasters, which we'll discuss below. But, even if we momentarily set aside hurricane-related flooding, there have been many notable flood events in the U.S. and abroad. Here are just a few:
According to NOAA, an average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. However, the 2024 season was above average on almost all fronts with 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes, which aligns closely with AEM’s forecast.
Unfortunately, when hurricanes make landfall, they can be highly destructive. Swiss RE notes that Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which pummeled the Southeast and made landfall in less than two weeks of each other – these two storms alone – caused insured losses of just under US $50 billion. And one of the biggest causes of destruction is flooding. Hurricanes Debby, Francine, Helene, and Milton have accounted for about half of all flash flood emergencies issued in the U.S. during the year.
In 2024, the U.S. suffered 17 separate billion-dollar storms, plus Hurricanes Helene and Milton inflicted another $50 billion in insured losses. Typhoon Yagi became the strongest storm to hit Vietnam in 70 years.
Of course, tropical cyclones are not the only storms we have to worry about. Insured losses from other severe convective storms throughout the U.S. are expected to total more than US $51 billion. In fact, 17 of the 24 billion-dollar climate disasters in the U.S. this year have been severe storms that produced tornadoes, high winds, and/or hail. Total damage from those storms is $46.6 billion.
Here are a few storm highlights from the U.S. and abroad:
The U.S. National Interagency Fire Center reports that the country has, so far, suffered 52,447 wildfires, which have consumed more than 8.4 million acres. Although the total number of fires is currently about 5% under the 10-year average, the acreage burned is almost 25% greater than the 10-year average. Here are a few highlights:
Canada’s experience has been similar to that of the U.S. As of November, the number of wildfires this year was running about 9% under the 10-year average. However, those fires had burned almost 13.3 million acres, making 2024 the second-most destructive wildfire season since 1995 (second only to last year, which set the record with a whopping 42 million acres burned).
Climate change has caused wildfires in South America's Pantanal to become 40% more intense. Although North America and Australia experienced near-average numbers of fires in 2024, the acreage burned by those fires was well above average.
Here are a few of the North American highlights:
Australia’s experience has paralleled what we’ve seen in North America. The continent has had 64,804 VIIRS fire alerts, so far, in 2024, which is normal compared to other years going back to 2012. However, more than 237.4 million acres burned over the course of the country’s 2023-24 bushfire season, which is 413% greater than the area burned over the infamous 2019-20 Black Summer bushfire season.
Unfortunately for South America, heat and drought paved the way for the continent to fall victim to both more wildfires and more intense fires. As of September, a record-breaking 346,112 fires had burned across the South American continent, 70% of which were in Brazil. Making matters worse, hot and dry conditions boosted the intensity of this year’s wildfires by a full 40%. As a result, the fires have destroyed more than 4.48 million acres – an area nearly the size of the entire Florida Everglades.
2024 has made one thing clear: as the climate continues to warm, the impacts of natural hazards are becoming an enduring and growing part of our reality. From record-breaking heat to intensifying storms and wildfires, these events remind us of the urgent need to adapt to a changing world. The question is no longer whether we can avoid natural hazards, but how we can minimize their impact and strengthen our communities to weather the challenges ahead.
The key lies in working together to understand the risks, plan ahead, and take proactive measures. But, effective collaboration hinges on understanding what others are doing. That’s why AEM recently surveyed more than 1,600 businesses, government agencies, and private citizens in the U.S. and abroad about how they are dealing with weather-related hazards. To see the results, check out our 2024 End-of-Year Weather Resilience Report.